Go Short?

Here a very reliable signal of a top: the turn in the 5 day ema of the total put/call ratio.

This signal given before the employment report with everybody having positive expectations (amplified by the ADP number yesterday) is not a good mix for the short term longs.

With other indicators suggesting bigger corrections, even the intermediate term longs are in a bit of danger:

> Gallup Consumer Confidence (previously commented on here):

> 3 month average of the monthly percent change in real retail sales (last analyzed here):

Will I short?

The thing holding me off is the expectation of a good retail sales number for December which would prolong this rally a couple of weeks. There is little excuse for losing in a bull market on the short side because you simply should not short a bull market.

However, the market is nicely set up for a top around these levels and if ES rallies after the open above the recent high at 1277 I may give it a try and go short.