A Question of Timing

I think we are very close of an intermediate term top in the market. Here is why, mainly:

> the pace of change in retail sales will slow down, usually consistent with weak future economic data and a correction in the markets :

> Gallup daily consumer confidence is at a high for some time. This preceded corrections in the past:

> breadth indicators (NYHL, % of stocks above the 50 DMA) that are diverging from the market. They usually do this and the market keeps rising but this is eventually followed by a correction.

In this context, the only problem is timing the top. For this purpose, I use put/call data and expect a turn around important economic reports:

> I think the next bullish spike on the cpc and the 5 day EMA reaching the overbought line will offer a good opportunity to sell:

The put/call ratio is very weak with the market at new highs. This is normal behavior at more important tops

The 5 day EMA of the put/call ratio will probably give a sell signal once it approaches the overbought level today or tomorrow.

> Tomorrow the Q4 GDP number is reported, a very important economic data point, one that marks inflexion points in the stock market.

A good way to minimize risk will be to wait for the market to rise significantly before an eventual short. I think this will happen at the open tomorrow after good GDP data.