Thursday, January 6, 2011

Close to a Top

The market has started to be shaky (moving violently up, then down, then up again) before an important event: the employment situation. This suggests a bigger correction will follow with a top today or tomorrow. The pc ratio will probably form a pattern often associated with tops:

If today gaps up strongly, the more aggressive can short around the overnight highs. The employment report tomorrow does not represent a big risk for the shorts with the market already this high. The more conservative way of shorting would be on an initial spike up after tomorrow's report.

I think that after an initial correction next week, the market will go up again into the retail sales report. I expect an intermediate term correction after that.

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