Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Outlook for the Short Term

With the market still overbought at yesterday's close, today is very probable to sell off hard and close at its lows.

This correction may end after about 25 points to the downside around the 20 DMA. From there I expect the market to start going up again but be weak. Here is how things might unfold before this bull leg ends:

The above is market action from Jan - Feb 2007.

If conditions seem right, I will go long after such a correction. As usual, I will mainly time the trade using the total put/call ratio.

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