Retail Sales Strength

Here is the updated chart of the 3 month average pace of change in real retail sales:

I first analyzed this series and drawn some more detailed conclusions from its behavior here.

I have marked with the green circle the recent turn in the series. This turn comes as expected from the horizontal red line and I think it will continue this autumn as it did in the autumn of 07 (purple circle). An up tick in economic activity will make the market participants cast away the omnipresent double dip theme, just what the long term bear needs in order to continue downwards.

Until then the bear-market rally will head higher.