As I stated recently I will be a seller tonight on a rally after the 2:15 announcement.
Here is what supports the scenario of a correction:
- first of all the put/call ratio:
- the rally is 105 points long and has not paused at all on the way from 1040;
- the media has become brave enough to express some bullish views;
- the market often reverses the previous trend after a Fed day ( remember August 11th);
- VIX has been diverging from SPX;
- my intuition;
- other.
Negating it:
- breadth getting stronger on yesterday's ramp up after many days of under performing relative to the stock market - I will ignore this fact for now (no setup is perfect).
Consequently, depending on how the market is positioned after the announcement, I will sell after a rally. I am now guessing somewhere between 1143.5 and 1148.5 on the SPX. I am looking for at least 30 points on the downside. I will try to post my trade in real-time.
2 comments:
Good day!
Very interested in hearing your thoughts on Trade SP.
I ask you, what a chance to break SP 1150 and to rise above before 1170?
What are your thoughts?
Thanks in advance.
i think there is a big chance of a move to 1170 after a correction of a few days.
i do not think we will see the spx above 1150 before this correction. a marginal break of 1150, if it happens, would be a great short opportunity
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