I am posting the chart above as a preface to the retail sales announcement today. The two series represent daily self-reported consumer spending amounts (excluding houses, cars or normal household bills). Gallup collects the data and then calculates a weekly average. The four values for July are on the blue line, the ones for August are on the red one.
Spending for July was lower during all four weeks. The retail sales may provide a negative surprise, probably not so negative as to invalidate my projection for this series:
It is on this projection that I have built my scenario of an uptick in the economy accompanied by a rally in the stock market this autumn.
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