Friday, August 27, 2010

Looking in the Rear-view Mirror

Here is spx action at three recent important lows:

- late July:
- early July:
- early June:

The initial move off the lows is followed by a sell off next day and a gap up on the third day. This is one of the reasons I bought yesterday, one hour before the close. Some may find this method trivial but I would not exchange it for any indicator out there!

I only bought half of a full position because the GDP revision adds some uncertainty. By the way, the consensus of 1,3% seems too low to me. We might get a positive surprise leading to a gap up.

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