Sunday, August 29, 2010

The 10 Point Mistake

On Friday I added to my long position before the 10 am report. Big mistake!

One of my most favored entries is fading the 10 am news report when the market is oversold or overbought. In the current case the market was oversold and I wanted to go long. The reversals after 10 am news are especially powerful when the news would confirm the trend that is about to reverse. Indeed on Friday the lower consumer sentiment number would have been consistent with more downside had the market not been ripe for a turnaround.

Still, this time I completely forgot about the 10 am report. As the market touched the 1050 support it seems I just entered a trance and skipped the upcoming Ben Bernanke speech or the Consumer Sentiment report. Had I not done that, I would have probably been able to add at 1040 ES. This means that my omission cost me 10 ES points. Two or three more of these and they sum up to a full standard loss.

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