Thursday, March 1, 2012

Evidence against a bigger correction

I said before that I expected a correction of about 40 points and, given yesterday's action, it might have already started.

Still, there is some strong evidence against it for now.

I am talking about the 5 day ema of the total put/call ratio, which hasn't spiked despite the relentless rise up to 1380.


I checked back into the history of the bull since 2009 and I could not find another similar instance that would lead to a greater correction except for intermediary term tops, a scenario that is ruled out for now.

The second piece of evidence against a greater correction is the way the daily chart looks. It has not had a period of acceleration into the top, which usually precedes greater corrections.

ES March contract daily chart starting in January
I have also marked two support levels that would contain this correction: 1350 and 1335. At the moment, I think 1350 will hold.

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