Tuesday, March 27, 2012

The dollar

Here is the monetary policy guidance given recently by the ECB and the Fed:

> the ECB: 

"Owing to rises in energy prices and indirect taxes, inflation rates are now likely to stay above 2% in 2012, with upside risks prevailing".


> the Fed, through Ben Bernanke:

 "[...] the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policies, by providing support for demand and for the recovery, should help, over time, to reduce long-term unemployment as well."


I think the ECB is mistaking the rear-view mirror for the windshield, again. And the market is starting to react. 


Here is a monthly chart of the US Dollar June contract:


The dollar has been sold at the 81 resistance. It has support below 78.

This can be also seen on a weekly chart:


While on the daily chart a head and shoulders with break-down projects to 78:


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