Monday, March 7, 2011

May 2009 Reloaded

The market action resembles more and more the May-June 2009 top.

After an initial period of zig-zag (blue line) the market dropped and then moved up for three days in a row (green arrow). I do not know if the next three candles will be the same now but a move up looks very probable.

Indeed, the futures are up as I am writing this and next week there is a FOMC meeting. Also, there is no important economic data released until Friday and the employment report was strong. Moreover, the put/call ratio is not overbought. In short, a recipe for a rally this week.


Meanwhile, the volatility has significantly increased, a behavior that precedes more important tops when it comes after a sustained move up with low volatility.

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