The Context

Here is a short summary of the economic and technical context.

Real retail sales have continued to rise slower on average.

I think the series can even reach the lower extreme, although that is not a certainty.

CPI has accelerated its rise and the pace may stall for a few months before slowing down.

This evolution will probably mask a faster rise in core CPI than in the food & energy component which has already made its move.

This might be associated with a rally in the dollar starting in April, but from lower levels.

Meanwhile, the intermediate term correction in the stock market is well underway. The SPX was pushed over the edge by two external shocks.

I marked the intermediate term corrections in this bull market. This correction is already big but it can be bigger and not be an exception.

Still, there are indicators suggesting the market is oversold, so, technically a bottom is not much lower. Here is one of them:

Short summary of the above: the economy has not slowed down enough and the stock market has not corrected enough for aggressive intermediate term long positions but the market is oversold and a multiday rally is in the cards.

Here is a possible road map for the SPX for the following months. We might be at the blue circle:

I'm showing this just as an example of what the market can do. The only factor pointing towards this scenario is my expectation of volatility in the stock market until the end of this summer.