Friday, July 16, 2010

Timing Tool


source: CBOE
The chart above depicts the total put/call ratio. Click to enlarge.

It represents my main timing tool. It is flexible and reliable.
Currently, the ratio settles in the 0.85-0.9 range, an area consistent with previous tops from the beginning of May. This is the main reason I expect a pullback from these levels.

Also, the behaviour of the ratio at these levels points to some downside. As can be seen from the picture, at the previous top the spike up -the scale is inverted- (highlighted by the black arrow) is followed by small moves up and down (highlighted by the red circle) and then by a move down in the stock market.

The level of 1.2 (the green horizontal line) is where I think this ratio will be in a few days. It will represent bearish sentiment prevailing and it will be a great buying opportunity.

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