Here is the pace of change in Real Retail Sales,
and the CPI.
The stock market usually anticipates and accompanies these indicators as they move lower. This time was no different.
Simce the indicators reached the lower boundaries of their intervals of variation, the next move will be up. This would mean some good news for the economy until the autumn, but I do expect this bounce to be weak. Anyway, it will push the stock market higher and help lure in some imprudent bulls.
2 comments:
Adi, thanks for the update!
I think market will rally into Elecion to help someone run the office in next 4 years...at that moment, market will reach new high and bulls will celebrate before the real dump...
Tony
I haven't taken the election into consideration but it is a factor.
I remember that in 2008 the market had no problem going down into the election but that was rather the exception than the rule.
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