Tuesday, February 15, 2011

China PMI

The series below is the China PMI (not the HSBC one).

I have marked the inflection points. Generally, they corresponded to inflection points in the US stock market. The only exception is the one circled in green, the latest one. For this one, the market top should have arrived somewhere in December or January, given the previous pattern.

This suggests that even if until recently the US economic recovery has been mostly a China story, the markets are now pricing in a self sustaining US recovery. This has longer term implications, suggesting that there are several years of economic expansion ahead, provided there is no major external shock.

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