Nothing much to add today. I still like my short position. The fact that I sold high enough is making it easy to manage risk. Even if the market goes against me, it cannot go too far before becoming overbought. This is the main reason fading the market is a good strategy for entry. The important thing is not to be too early and this is the hard part.
The overnight ES action looks encouraging but I do not think the market will break today. I rather expect a small down day followed by a rally and a big sell off tomorrow. Something like the 1st of September 2008:
I believe that if we see a top the following days this is the most probable scenario because the market closed at its highs yesterday and usually tops take place in the same session the market makes new highs.
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