Monday, December 20, 2010

Market Outlook

The put/call ratio has not offered any edge lately:

All I can say for sure is that there is no indication of an overbought condition yet since the short term top on Tuesday. This, combined with the seasonality, means the path of least resistance is still up.

However, I think the market will be choppy and will not roar higher. A strong indication of weakness is a small range day with greater than average volume. This is what happened on Friday:

I also marked a previous similar case.

If today opens with a relatively large gap up, I think profit takers will seize the opportunity.

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