Industrial Production at "Support"

Here is a chart of a series describing the average pace of change in US Industrial Production:

I have drawn some important levels, from which the series has turned in the past. Currently it is at the blue horizontal line after a slowdown which is not uncommon during economic expansions. I expect the series to turn back up and rise toward the upper black line.

This expectation is reinforced by the lagged correlation that exists between Industrial Production and the New Orders component of the ISM Manufacturing index. Notice how the New Orders index has sharply turned up also from what looks like a support level around 50: