Thursday, October 17, 2013

Treasuries and Gold



The chart above shows the December weekly futures contract for the 10-year T-Note.

The T-Notes have a good track record of anticipating turns in the business cycle and, implicitly, in the stock market. The rise in September and the possible trend reversal if the highlighted level is broken, are similar to the behavior at the  2007 and 2011 peaks, confirming the scenario of at least a slowdown in the economy.

If we interpreted Gold as a fixed income asset (here is why), then it has a lot of upside potential. Gold also started rising in the past just before major economic slowdowns.

Here is a weekly chart of the December contract for Gold.


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