Here is a chart of a short term rate of change in employment. The series has further to fall.
From another point of view, this slowdown in employment may very well have marked the top for this recovery. Here is a yearly percent change in private payrolls (excluding health & education payrolls which are not cyclical).
The top is already in place from last year. In previous cases the series continued its fall.
During the previous bull it had topped in April 2006 and the market followed only more than a year after. This is why this bull market, even if quite old, has further to go.
Meanwhile, the price of gold has reached the bottom of a long trading range.
As I wrote in my previous post about gold, its price is rising in anticipation of economic weakness, and falls when the economy accelerates. I have anticipated the economic slowdown, but gold continued to fall. This may suggest further weakness this year.
But until then, gold is at important support and is a short term buy as it bounces during the correction in the stock market. Then, the time will come for another leg down as the correction on the monthly chart could be bigger than 20%.
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