Economic slowdown in the near future

The FOMC minutes informed us yesterday that the economy has behaved a little better than expected lately. However, for the stock market that is not so great news because it has already happened.

Here is a chart of the average pace of monthly change in real personal consumption expenditures for Durable Goods.

The chart shows that the series has already risen and that, after carving out a pattern that is not occurring for the first time (red circles), it is ready to start falling. 

Looking back, in the case of the previous two occurrences the market has seen two important tops: spring 2010 and spring 2011. 

I don't think spring 2012 will be any different.