ACH on Jan31: Straight up from here?

I was getting ready to analyze the possibility that the correction has ended, but the evidence is overwhelming against a continuation of the correction so I am focusing on something more useful: Will the market go straight up or it will correct 8 points or more in the next day or two before moving higher?


Hypotheses:


H1 - the market continues rising without corrections greater than a few points;
H2 - the market corrects 8 points or more today or tomorrow before moving higher.



Evidence (I only kept evidence that has some relevance for the analysis):


E1 - two previous analogue cases (10/27/2010 and 01/13/2012) suggest there will be a greater intraday correction  today or tomorrow;
E2 - the rhythm on the 3 hours Globex ES chart seems to be 17-21 points rallies followed by at least 8 points corrections;
E3 - European lunch entry was strong, suggesting strength further in the first part of the US session.



Matrix:

	E1	E2	E3	Total
H1	-0.5	-0.5	+	-1
H2	+	+	+	0

H2 is winning. The market will probably correct 8 points or more today or tomorrow before moving to new highs. That correction will probably be a good buying opportunity.

Also, notice that evidence is scarce. This is because there are not many indicators or signs to determine whether the market corrects or not over the short term.