Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Not a Bear Market Anymore

I did not have too much time to post lately. In fact, this will be the case from here on and I am thinking of discontinuing this blog or post much more sporadically.

Meanwhile, the so called bear market rally has metamorphosed into something else, invalidating my long term expectation of a bear market. Here is a reliable indicator suggesting the move up in October has been more than a bear market rally: percent of S&P500 stocks above their 50 DMA.


The purple line usually contains this indicator during bear market rallies. Notice the recent strength above the line.

This is not the only indicator suggesting the same thing. So, from here on I will buy daily pullbacks, at leat until the 5 day ema of the total put/call ratio moves towards the upper part of my inverted chart below. In fact, I already bought today at the 1216.5 daily ES support.



1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Aid,

Please don't do it. I am really enjoy reading your blog even sometimes the posts are old.

Tony