Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Analogy

Here are a few analogues from 2009-2010, with the candle corresponding to yesterday's trading circled in green.


In two of the cases, the market was two days before a FOMC meeting., just like today.

This suggests that the market may correct starting on Wednesday, after a move up today. The strength is not guaranteed for tomorrow too, given the analogues above and with the SPX hitting the 50 simple DMA around 1225. Thus, I will take profits today if the market reaches 1223 ES.

Looking further, the bear market rally will continue after a few days of downside. The 5 day ema of the total put/call ratio is far from overbought ...

... while the economy has some positive surprises coming first.


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