I think the path of lest resistance will be up over the next couple of weeks.
The 5 day ema of the put/call ratio is at a level (blue line) associated with inflection points during intermediate term bull moves:
The simple put/call ratio suggests the market is oversold. The bottom is already in or it will happen today or on Monday:
Also, today is a NFP day. This usually marks a turn in the markets.
However, longer term the economy is cooling a little. Retail sales growth has slowed down.
This usually is also reflected by the stock indices over the medium term. The recent correction was 7% to the downside. By my measures this qualifies as an IT correction. Still, with retail sales slowing down their rate of growth and with the envisioned stop of QE2, the markets may just remain volatile over the next months.
No comments:
Post a Comment