Thursday, April 26, 2012

Weak, overbought and at resistance

I think the market is about to turn lower again and this time break to at least 1340. Yesterday's rally provides a nice entry point for a short.

Indeed, despite the big gap up and close at the highs, yesterday was not a 90 % up volume day. I take this as a sign of weakness. I do not know if this observation has statistical value but I noticed that during previous intermediate term corrections big rallies are not 90 % up volume days.

Also, as Tony noticed, the total put/call ratio spiked to overbought yesterday, after a few weeks of staying too bearish.


Weak and overbought is a great combination by itself if you wanted to sell. 

When the market is also against resistance the opportunity could not be better because a possible loss is greatly minimized.

Sometimes the best opportunities come during the European morning, but I think the market will come to the US sellers too. 

Strength above the upper trend line of the bear flag can be a trigger to take losses in case of a short.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey man! It is your teaching in this blog made me sensitive on P/C ratio. Thanks for mention...

Tony

Adrn said...

;-)

It's been my pleasure Tony.