The chart above is that of the quarterly percent change in real GDP with a 4 period moving average (blue line).
The weakness of this recovery is clearly visible. The average has not reached the level of 1% (marked by the red segment) as it did during the previous expansions. This is coming after a very sharp contraction so it is not a good sign for the long term.
Also, the average has crossed the purple horizontal line from the upside during bear markets. It is now very close to it again. With the GDP expected to have slowed down in Q3, we might get a signal again very soon.
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