ACH on Jan28 Updated

The ACH method allows updates and corrections as new evidence comes in or as things become clearer. After all, it is dealing with continuously flowing data and uncertainty.

Here is new evidence or evidence that I disregarded/overlooked for the ACH on Jan 28 and here is how it influences the score of each scenario:

E9 - the market did not correct more than 20 points after the January break-out and now it is not against any big resistance - the next resistance on the weekly chart is around 1340.  (E9 was not a valid observation; I rewrote it below);
E9 - the weekly ES chart hit strong resistance at 1330, which can lead to a greater than 20 points correction ( I  overlooked this);
E10 - the market dropped about 10 points in 30 minutes after the GDP report on Friday (in my experience this kind of drop is strong evidence that the market has enough momentum to go further lower - I wrongfully disregarded this.).

Here is the updated/corrected matrix:

	E1	E2	E3	E4	E5	E6	E7	E8	E9	E10	Total
H1	+	+	-0.5	+	+	+	+	+	-0.5	-1	-2
H2	-0.5	+	+	+	-1	+	+	-0.5	+	+	-2

The score becomes equal.

Anyway, the market is dropping to new lows as I am writing this which clearly invalidates the 20 points correction scenario (H1). Given that this comes after consolidation on Friday we could see a trend day down today. In an uptrend a trend day down usually takes the market to the bottom of a small correction.